The Illusion of Control and Information Overload within a Bayesian Updating Framework

Elżbieta Kubińska, Marcin Czupryna, Łukasz Markiewicz


In this paper, the hypothesis that information overload causes the illusion of control is verified with Bayesian updating. Bayesian updating is considered the rationality model of individuals’ perception of their impact on the process of generating results. Here, the Bayesian model of processing information, where different priors are applied, is validated. Information overload has been operationalised by introducing uncertainty about the function and parameter values of generating results.

Słowa kluczowe

overconfidence, illusion of control, information overload, Bayesian updating

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