The Illusion of Control and Information Overload within a Bayesian Updating Framework

Elżbieta Kubińska, Marcin Czupryna, Łukasz Markiewicz

Streszczenie


In this paper, the hypothesis that information overload causes the illusion of control is verified with Bayesian updating. Bayesian updating is considered the rationality model of individuals’ perception of their impact on the process of generating results. Here, the Bayesian model of processing information, where different priors are applied, is validated. Information overload has been operationalised by introducing uncertainty about the function and parameter values of generating results.


Słowa kluczowe


overconfidence, illusion of control, information overload, Bayesian updating

Pełny tekst

PDF (English)

Literatura


Alloy, L. B., Abramson, L. Y. (1979). Judgment of Contingency in Depressed and Nondepressed Students: Sadder but Wiser? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 108, 441–485. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.108.4.441.

Black F. (1986). Noise. Journal of Finance, 41, 529–543. https://doi.org/10.2307/2328481.

Chewning, E. Jr, Harrell, A. M. (1990). The Effect of Information Load on Decision Makers’ Cue Utilization Levels and Decision Quality in a Financial Distress Decision Task, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 15(6), 527–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0361-3682(90)90033-q.

Czupryna, M., Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2018). Can Conjugate Prior Probability Explain the Illusion of Control?, submitted to Decyzje (in print).

Evans, J., Stanovich, K. E. (2013). Dual-process Theories of Higher Cognition: Advancing the Debate. Perspectives on Psychological Science 8, 223–241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612460685.

Fenton-O’Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., Soane, E., Willman, P. (2003). Trading on Illusions: Unrealistic Perceptions of Control and Trading Performance. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 76(1), 53–68. https://doi.org/10.1348/096317903321208880.

Gino, F., Sharek, Z., Moore, D. A. (2011). Keeping the Illusion of Control under Control: Ceilings, Floors, and Imperfect Calibration, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 114(2), 104–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2010.10.002.

Kubińska, E., Czupryna, M., Markiewicz, Ł., Czekaj, J. (2018), Technical Analysis Gives You Courage, but Not Money – on the Relationship between Technical Analysis Usage, Overconfidence and Investment Performance, Argumenta Oeconomica, 40, 317–344.

Langer, E. J. (1975). The Illusion of Control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311–328. https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.32.2.311.

Millisecond Software (2015). Inquisit 4, https://www.millisecond.com.

Neys, W. D. (2006). Dual Processing in Reasoning: Two Systems but One Reasoner. Psychological Science, 17(5), 428–433. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01723.x.

Raiffa, H., Schlaifer, R. (1961). Applied Statistical Decision Theory. Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University.

R Core Team (2016). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. https://www.R-project.org/.

Turner, B. M., Van Zandt, T. (2012). A Tutorial on Approximate Bayesian Computation. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 56(2), 69–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2012.02.005.

Schick, A. G., Gorden, L. A., Haka, S. (1990). Information Overload: A Temporal Approach. Accounting Organizations and Society, 15, 199–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/0361-3682(90)90005-f




DOI: https://doi.org/10.15678/PJOEP.2017.12.01

Odniesienia

  • Obecnie nie ma odniesień.